Mathematical models have been used to understand the spread patterns of infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission component of the models can be modelled in an age-dependent manner via introducing contact matrix for the population, which describes the contact rates between the age groups. Since social contact patterns vary from country to country, we can compare and group the countries using the corresponding contact matrices. In this paper, we present a framework for clustering countries based on their contact matrices with respect to an underlying epidemic model. Since the pipeline is generic and modular, we demonstrate its application in a COVID-19 model from R\"ost et. al. which gives a hint about which countries can be compared in a pandemic situation, when only non-pharmaceutical interventions are available.
翻译:2019年科罗纳病毒病(COVID-19)等传染病的传播模式已经使用数学模型来理解传染病的传播模式,这些模式的传播部分可以通过对人口采用描述各年龄组之间接触率的接触矩阵来根据年龄进行模拟;由于社会接触模式因国家而异,我们可以比较使用相应的接触矩阵的国家,并对其进行分组;在本文件中,我们提出了一个基于国家联系矩阵的分组框架,以其与一个基本流行病模式的联系矩阵为基础;由于管道是通用和模块化的,我们用R\'ost等人的COVID-19模型来展示其应用情况,该模型提示了在只有非药物干预的情况下哪些国家可以比较。