Stock selection attempts to rank a list of stocks for optimizing investment decision making, aiming at minimizing investment risks while maximizing profit returns. Recently, researchers have developed various (recurrent) neural network-based methods to tackle this problem. Without exceptions, they primarily leverage historical market volatility to enhance the selection performance. However, these approaches greatly rely on discrete sampled market observations, which either fail to consider the uncertainty of stock fluctuations or predict continuous stock dynamics in the future. Besides, some studies have considered the explicit stock interdependence derived from multiple domains (e.g., industry and shareholder). Nevertheless, the implicit cross-dependencies among different domains are under-explored. To address such limitations, we present a novel stock selection solution -- StockODE, a latent variable model with Gaussian prior. Specifically, we devise a Movement Trend Correlation module to expose the time-varying relationships regarding stock movements. We design Neural Recursive Ordinary Differential Equation Networks (NRODEs) to capture the temporal evolution of stock volatility in a continuous dynamic manner. Moreover, we build a hierarchical hypergraph to incorporate the domain-aware dependencies among the stocks. Experiments conducted on two real-world stock market datasets demonstrate that StockODE significantly outperforms several baselines, such as up to 18.57% average improvement regarding Sharpe Ratio.
翻译:最近,研究人员开发了各种(经常)神经网络基础的神经网络方法来解决这一问题。无一例外,他们主要利用历史市场波动来提高选择绩效。然而,这些方法在很大程度上依赖于分散的抽样市场观察,这些观察既不能考虑股票波动的不确定性,也不能预测未来持续股票动态。此外,一些研究还考虑了从多个领域(例如工业和股东)产生的明确的股票相互依存关系。然而,不同领域之间隐含的相互依存关系没有得到充分探讨。为了解决这些限制,我们提出了一个新的股票选择办法 -- -- 斯托德,这是古斯以前的潜伏变异模型。具体地说,我们设计了一个移动巨变关系模块,以暴露关于股票流动的时间变化关系。我们设计了 " 神经再稳定普通差异网络 " (NRODE),以持续动态的方式捕捉到股票波动的暂时演变。此外,我们制作了两套等级的高级高调调调调调调调,将域间测算系统纳入到18个数据库中。我们设计了一个模型,在18个基线上展示了各种平均的市场变化。