We propose a new model that describes the dynamics of epidemic spreading on connected graphs. Our model consists in a PDE-ODE system where at each vertex of the graph we have a standard SIR model and connexions between vertices are given by heat equations on the edges supplemented with Robin like boundary conditions at the vertices modeling exchanges between incident edges and the associated vertex. We describe the main properties of the system, and also derive the final total population of infected individuals. We present a semi-implicit in time numerical scheme based on finite differences in space which preserves the main properties of the continuous model such as the uniqueness and positivity of solutions and the conservation of the total population. We also illustrate our results with a selection of numerical simulations for a selection of connected graphs.
翻译:我们提出一个新的模型,描述在相关图表上传播流行病的动态。我们的模型包括一个PDE-ODE系统,在这个系统中,在图形的每个顶端,我们有一个标准的SIR模型,而顶端的脊椎之间的共振则由边缘的热方程式来提供,加上Robin等边端的热方程式来补充。在事件边缘和相关的顶端之间模拟交流的顶端条件中,我们描述了该系统的主要特性,并得出了受感染者的最后总人数。我们提出了一个基于空间有限差异的半隐含时间数字方案,以保持连续模型的主要特性,例如解决方案的独特性和可现性和总体人口的保护。我们还通过选择数字模拟来选择连接的图形来说明我们的结果。