The Dichotomy of Evaluating Homomorphism-Closed Queries on Probabilistic Graphs

We study the problem of probabilistic query evaluation on probabilistic graphs, namely, tuple-independent probabilistic databases on signatures of arity two. Our focus is the class of queries that is closed under homomorphisms, or equivalently, the infinite unions of conjunctive queries. Our main result states that all unbounded queries from this class are #P-hard for probabilistic query evaluation. As bounded queries from this class are equivalent to a union of conjunctive queries, they are already classified by the dichotomy of Dalvi and Suciu (2012). Hence, our result and theirs imply a complete data complexity dichotomy, between polynomial time and #P-hardness, for evaluating infinite unions of conjunctive queries over probabilistic graphs. This dichotomy covers in particular all fragments of infinite unions of conjunctive queries such as negation-free (disjunctive) Datalog, regular path queries, and a large class of ontology-mediated queries on arity-two signatures. Our result is shown by reducing from counting the valuations of positive partitioned 2-DNF formulae for some queries, or from the source-to-target reliability problem in an undirected graph for other queries, depending on properties of minimal models. The presented dichotomy result applies to even a special case of probabilistic query evaluation called generalized model counting, where fact probabilities must be 0, 0.5, or 1.