Statistical inference for stochastic processes based on high-frequency observations has been an active research area for more than two decades. One of the most well-known and widely studied problems is the estimation of the quadratic variation of the continuous component of an It\^o semimartingale with jumps. Several rate- and variance-efficient estimators have been proposed in the literature when the jump component is of bounded variation. However, to date, very few methods can deal with jumps of unbounded variation. By developing new high-order expansions of the truncated moments of a locally stable L\'evy process, we construct a new rate- and variance-efficient volatility estimator for a class of It\^o semimartingales whose jumps behave locally like those of a stable L\'evy process with Blumenthal-Getoor index $Y\in (1,8/5)$ (hence, of unbounded variation). The proposed method is based on a two-step debiasing procedure for the truncated realized quadratic variation of the process. Our Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the method outperforms other efficient alternatives in the literature in the setting covered by our theoretical framework.
翻译:随着高频观察的统计研究越来越活跃,基于随机过程的统计推断已经成为活跃的研究领域已经超过20年。其中最知名且被广泛研究的问题之一是在有跳跃的Itô半鞅中,对连续成分的二次变异的估计。当跳跃成分具有有界变化时,已经有了几种速率和方差效率高的估计器的提出。然而,迄今为止,很少有方法可以处理无界变化的跳跃。通过开发局部稳定的Lévy过程的截断矩的新的高阶展开,我们构造了一个新的速率和方差效率的波动率估算器,适用于一类Itô半鞅,其中跳跃行为在本地呈现出具有Blumenthal-Getoor指数$Y\in(1,8/5)$的稳定Lévy过程(因此具有无限变化)。所提出的方法基于对该过程截断实现二次方差的两步去偏倚程序。我们的蒙特卡洛实验表明,在我们的理论框架下,该方法优于文献中的其他有效替代方案。