In this article, we describe and compare methods to derive \textit{p}-values and sets of confidence intervals with strong control of the family-wise error rates and coverage for estimates of treatment effects in cluster randomised trials with multiple outcomes. While the need for corrections for multiple testing is debated, the justification for doing so is that, without correction, the probability of rejecting at least one of a set of null hypotheses is greater than the nominal rate of any single test, and hence the coverage of a confidence set is lower than the nominal rate of any single interval. There are few methods \textit{p}-value corrections in this context and none for deriving confidence intervals, limiting their application in this setting. We discuss the methods of Bonferroni, Holm, and Romano \& Wolf (2005) and their adaptation to cluster randomised trials using permutational inference using efficient quasi-score test statistics and weighted generalised residuals. We develop a search procedure for confidence interval limits using permutation tests to produce a set of confidence intervals under each method of correction. We conduct a simulation-based study to compare family-wise error rates, coverage of confidence sets, and the efficiency of each procedure in comparison to no correction using both model-based standard errors and permutation tests. We show that the Romano-Wolf type procedure has nominal error rates and coverage under non-independent correlation structures and is more efficient than the other methods in a simulation-based study. We also compare results from the analysis of a real-world trial.
翻译:在本篇文章中,我们描述和比较得出\textit{p}值和信任间隔的方法,对家庭错差率和在集束随机测试中估计治疗效果的涵盖范围进行严格控制,并得出多重结果。虽然对多项测试进行更正的必要性进行了辩论,但这样做的理由是,不作更正,拒绝至少一套无名假设之一的可能性大于任何单一测试的名义比率,因此,一套信任的涵盖范围低于任何单一间隔之间的名义比率。在这方面,几乎没有方法对家庭错差率进行严格控制,也没有对得出信任间隔进行重大更正,从而限制其在此背景下的应用。我们讨论了Bonferroni、Holm和Romano ⁇ Wolf(2005年)的方法,以及利用高效准核心测试统计数据和加权一般残余的混合随机试验的适应。我们开发了一套信任间隔限制搜索程序,使用基于任何单一间隔的测试,以便在每种修正方法下建立一套信任间隔。我们进行的模拟研究,对基于家庭错差率进行实际比较的实际间隔,并用每种标准测试方法进行比较。