Deep learning has been actively applied to time-series forecasting, leading to a deluge of new autoregressive model architectures. Yet, despite the attractive properties of time-index based models, such as being a continuous signal function over time leading to smooth representations, little attention has been given to them. Indeed, while naive deep time-index based models are far more expressive than the manually predefined function representations of classical time-index based models, they are inadequate for forecasting due to the lack of inductive biases, and the non-stationarity of time-series. In this paper, we propose DeepTIMe, a deep time-index based model trained via a meta-learning formulation which overcomes these limitations, yielding an efficient and accurate forecasting model. Extensive experiments on real world datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, and is highly efficient. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/DeepTIMe.
翻译:深层次的学习被积极应用于时间序列预测,导致新的自动递减模型结构的堆积。然而,尽管基于时间指数模型具有有吸引力的特性,例如,随着时间流流逝,信号功能会一直持续,导致平稳的表达,但人们很少注意这些模型。 事实上,虽然天真的深层次基于时间指数模型比古典时间指数模型的手动预设功能表示方式更清晰得多,但由于缺乏感应偏差和时间序列不固定,这些模型不足以进行预测。在本文件中,我们建议采用深时间指数模型,即通过一个通过元化学习公式培训的深时间指数模型,克服这些局限性,产生一个高效和准确的预测模型。关于真实世界数据集的广泛实验表明,我们的方法能够以最先进的方法取得竞争性的结果,而且效率很高。代码可在https://github.com/salesforce/DepTIMey查阅。