The Robbins estimator is the most iconic and widely used procedure in the empirical Bayes literature for the Poisson model. On one hand, this method has been recently shown to be minimax optimal in terms of the regret (excess risk over the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior) for various nonparametric classes of priors. On the other hand, it has been long recognized in practice that Robbins estimator lacks the desired smoothness and monotonicity of Bayes estimators and can be easily derailed by those data points that were rarely observed before. Based on the minimum-distance distance method, we propose a suite of empirical Bayes estimators, including the classical nonparametric maximum likelihood, that outperform the Robbins method in a variety of synthetic and real data sets and retain its optimality in terms of minimax regret.
翻译:Robbins 估测器是Poisson 模型的经验型Bayes 文献中最有标志性和最广泛使用的程序,一方面,这一方法最近被证明在各种非参数性前科类别的遗憾(了解真实前科的Bayesian oracle的过大风险)方面是微小的最佳方法,另一方面,实践早已认识到Robbins 估测器缺乏Bayes 估测器所期望的平滑性和单一性,并且很容易被以前很少观察到的数据点脱轨。 根据最低距离方法,我们提议一套经验型Bayes 估测器,包括经典的非对称最大可能性,在各种合成和真实数据集中超越Robins 方法,并保持其最优化的微式遗憾。