High-frequency financial data can be collected as a sequence of curves over time; for example, as intra-day price, currently one of the topics of greatest interest in finance. The Functional Data Analysis framework provides a suitable tool to extract the information contained in the shape of the daily paths, often unavailable from classical statistical methods. In this paper, a novel goodness-of-fit test for autoregressive Hilbertian (ARH) models, with unknown and general order, is proposed. The test imposes just the Hilbert-Schmidt assumption on the functional form of the autocorrelation operator, and the test statistic is formulated in terms of a Cram\'er-von Mises norm. A wild bootstrap resampling procedure is used for calibration, such that the finite sample behavior of the test, regarding power and size, is checked via a simulation study. Furthermore, we also provide a new specification test for diffusion models, such as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, illustrated with an application to intra-day currency exchange rates. In particular, a two-stage methodology is proffered: firstly, we check if functional samples and their past values are related via ARH(1) model; secondly, under linearity, we perform a functional F-test.
翻译:高频金融数据可以作为长期曲线序列收集;例如,作为日常价格,目前是金融方面最感兴趣的议题之一。功能数据分析框架提供了一个合适的工具,用于提取日常路径形状中的信息,通常无法从古典统计方法中找到。在本文中,提出了对自动递进性希尔伯特(ARH)模型的新颖的完美测试,该测试具有未知和一般顺序。测试仅将Hilbert-Schmidt假设作为自动通缩操作器的功能形式,而测试统计则以Cram\'er-von Mises规范的形式编制。在校准中采用了野靴陷阱采样程序,这样通过模拟研究检查有关实力和大小的测试的有限抽样行为。此外,我们还为传播模型提供了一个新的规格测试,如Ornstein-Uhlenbeck流程,该流程与对内部货币兑换率的应用作了说明。特别是,两阶段方法以Cram\'ervon Mises 规范为基础:首先,我们检查功能性样品和过去值之间的功能性测试。