A new mixture vector autoressive model based on Gaussian and Student's $t$ distributions is introduced. The G-StMVAR model incorporates conditionally homoskedastic linear Gaussian vector autoregressions and conditionally heteroskedastic linear Student's $t$ vector autoregressions as its mixture components, and mixing weights that, for a $p$th order model, depend on the full distribution of the preceding $p$ observations. Also a structural version of the model with time-varying B-matrix and statistically identified shocks is proposed. We derive the stationary distribution of $p+1$ consecutive observations and show that the process is ergodic. It is also shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is strongly consistent, and thereby has the conventional limiting distribution under conventional high-level conditions.
翻译:G-StMVAR模型含有有条件的同心线性高斯矢量自动反射和有条件的异心线性流线性学生矢量自动反射作为其混合物成分,混合加权值,对于一个按美元顺序排列的模型来说,这种加权值取决于前一种以美元为单位的观测结果的全面分布。还提出了一个结构版模型,带有时间变化的B矩阵和统计学上确定的冲击。我们得出了连续观测的固定分布值$+1美元,并表明该过程是随机的。还表明,最大可能性的估测值非常一致,因此在传统的高水平条件下具有传统的限制分布。