Efficient Inference on High-Dimensional Linear Models with Missing Outcomes

This paper is concerned with inference on the conditional mean of a high-dimensional linear model when outcomes are missing at random. We propose an estimator which combines a Lasso pilot estimate of the regression function with a bias correction term based on the weighted residuals of the Lasso regression. The weights depend on estimates of the missingness probabilities (propensity scores) and solve a convex optimization program that trades off bias and variance optimally. Provided that the propensity scores can be consistently estimated, the proposed estimator is asymptotically normal and semi-parametrically efficient among all asymptotically linear estimators. The rate at which the propensity scores are consistent is essentially irrelevant, allowing us to estimate them via modern machine learning techniques. We validate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator through comparative simulation studies and the real-world problem of inferring the stellar masses of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.