居民通货膨胀感受的异质性、偏差及其形成机制研究

项目名称： 居民通货膨胀感受的异质性、偏差及其形成机制研究

项目编号： No.71273224

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 何运信

作者单位： 浙江财经学院

项目金额： 46万元

中文摘要： 不同个体或群体感受到的通货膨胀会有差异，而且通常高于官方公布的通胀率，这会影响社会通胀预期。本项目以居民通胀感受异质性、偏差及其形成机制为研究对象，研究内容是：对个体通胀感受的形成过程进行理论分析和模型刻画；运用所建立的理论模型分析通胀感受异质性和偏差的形成机制；对我国居民通胀感受异质性和偏差进行实证分析和检验。创新之处是：①构建的综合模型考虑了个体购物经验、外部通胀信息以及个体思维特质，从而对居民通胀感受的刻画更为全面；②通过放松假设条件和参数设置上的限制，改进基于购物经验和基于粘性信息的两类通胀感受模型，提高模型的适用性；③与现有研究相比，我们引入了个人资产状况和所受专业教育等因素来分析通胀感受异质性，引入了"证实偏差"、"保守主义偏差"、"锚定效应"和"易得性偏差"等认知偏差而不仅是"损失厌恶偏差"来分析通胀感受偏差；④以我国为样本的同类研究还暂付阙如，本项目是有益的尝试。

中文关键词： 通货膨胀感受；异质性；偏差；理性疏忽；心理偏差

英文摘要： Inflation perceptions of different households or groups are usually different from each other, and often deviate from the inflation rate announced by the official statistics department. The heterogeneity and bias of household inflation perceptions are important factors to influence the inflation expectation, so that it has become the focus of western academics. This research project takes the heterogeneity and bias of the household inflation perceptions and its formation mechanism as the object of study. The main study contents are as follows: firstly, we will analyze theoretically the formation of individual inflation perceptions and design mathematical models to depict the formation mechanism; secondly, we will analyze the formation mechanism of heterogeneity and bias in household inflation perceptions by the theoretical model that we design; lastly, we make empirical analysis and test on heterogeneity and bias of inflation perceptions of Chinese household. The main innovations of this research project are as follows: Firstly, The integrated model that we design includes individual thinking pattern and two external stimulus which are individual shopping experiences and external inflation information; so that it can portray more completely the formation of individual inflation perceptions. Secondly, we modify

英文关键词： inflation perceptions；heterogeneity；deviation；rational negligence；Psychological bias