产业集群风险传导与扩散及其预警机制研究

项目名称： 产业集群风险传导与扩散及其预警机制研究

项目编号： No.71303209

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 黄纯

作者单位： 浙江财经学院

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 集群风险是现实经济发展的阶段性产物，揭示其风险传导与扩散的本质，建立有效的风险预警和治理机制是亟待解决的现实问题。现有研究表明集群风险的产生原因、内部组织结构以及不同阶段影响因素的复杂性都使得常规的研究范式难以有效还原现实风险的本身，也就更难系统的诠释集群风险传导与扩散的过程。事实上，不同风险源所引致的集群风险具有显著差异，其内在的传导与扩散路径、演化机制也不尽相同，区别网络关系和关键企业这两种风险源对集群风险传导与扩散及其预警机制研究具有理论价值。本研究遵循规范的案例研究范式（将理论还原到现实），分析了网络关系或关键企业作为风险源与集群风险传导与扩散的关联机理，并结合复杂系统自组织的逻辑思维和仿真技术，对阶段性风险动态演化机理进行验证性研究。在此基础上，构建了集群案例和概念模型，设计了集群风险预警和治理机制，为规避集群风险，推动区域经济可持续发展提供理论借鉴。

中文关键词： 集群风险；网络结构；风险传导与扩散；集群治理；案例研究

英文摘要： Cluster risk is one of products of economic development. How to find the nature about the transmission and diffusion of cluster risk, and establish the mechanism of risk warning and governance have become an increasingly urgent problem. Research has proved that based on the origins of cluster risk, the complexities of its internal organizational structure, and influencing factors at different stages, conventional ways are not effective in restoring cluster risk itself, nor in explaining the process of its transmission and diffusion. In fact, however, different risk sources have different features, routes, and evolution mechanisms. Therefore, finding the differences of the two main risk sources, that is, network relationship and key enterprise, will be of great theoretic value. Our study follow the standard method of case study, analyze the mechanism between the risk sources ( the network relationship or key enterprise) and the transmission and diffusion of cluster risk, and verify the difficult stage of risk dynamic evolution mechanism, based on the complex system of logic and simulation technology. We also collect cluster cases, build conceptual models, and design the mechanism of cluster risk warning and governance. These findings will contribute to the theory of avoiding cluster risk and promoting the sustain

英文关键词： cluster risk；network structure；risk transmission and diffusion；cluster governance；case study