基于影响图的IT项目风险分析及决策模型

项目名称： 基于影响图的IT项目风险分析及决策模型

项目编号： No.71301044

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 瞿英

作者单位： 河北科技大学

项目金额： 20.5万元

中文摘要： 本项目围绕IT项目风险管理中的风险识别、评估及诊断等决策问题，旨在构建基于影响图的反映IT项目风险管理过程的风险分析和决策模型，为IT项目风险管理提供解决方案。本项目从IT项目风险管理活动的描述入手，融合项目管理过程组和IT技术过程过程组，构造集知识提取与表达为一体的领域知识本体模型，实现IT项目风险识别；基于过程引入相应的价值节点和决策节点，构建基于过程风险转移的风险影响图，实现风险的动态分析和决策。设计不同证据下不确定性知识的深度挖掘策略，从而实现IT项目风险知识推理。最后结合某实际IT项目的风险管理案例，分析该模型的有效性。本课题的研究将丰富IT项目风险管理理论，为IT项目风险知识发现提供新的思路与方法，从而为企业IT项目风险管理实践提供技术支持，提高实施企业信息化项目的成功率，从而推进企业信息化进程。

中文关键词： 风险影响图；阶段转移；IT项目风险本体；知识挖掘；风险识别

英文摘要： The model of risk analysis and knowledge inference reflecting the management process of IT project is constructed based on the theory of influence diagram to solve the decision problem such as risk identification, risk assessment and risk diagnosis in IT project risk management. The project aims at providing solution to risk decision-making. A domain knowledge ontology model is designed by integrated the knowledge of project management process group and technology process group to realize risk identification based on risk management activity description. The corresponding decision node and value node is imported into previous model according to the processes. Risk influence diagram based on the idea of process risk transfered is constructed to realize dynamic risk analysis and risk decision-making. Based on the theory of inference the risk probability of project can be obtained, so the risk assessment icould be realized. The strategy of knowledge mining deeply is designed by conducting the inferences based on the different evidence combinations. Finally, the model is validated by its application on IT project risk management cases. The study will enrich the IT project risk management theory and provide new ideas and methods for IT project risk knowledge management. It also provides enterprise technical support

英文关键词： Risk Influence Diagram；stage transferring；IT Project Risk Ontology；Knowledge Mining；Risk Identifacation