建立在文化度量空间上的国家风险分析

项目名称： 建立在文化度量空间上的国家风险分析

项目编号： No.71473187

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 颜黎

作者单位： 西安电子科技大学

项目金额： 63万元

中文摘要： 国家风险是指一个国家的整体不确定性对其经贸伙伴构成的综合风险。传统的国家风险理论致力于对被评估国按政治、经济、社会等风险分类。实践中标普等少数西方评级机构主导着该领域，实际上是基于西方价值观对各种风险感知，其结果不一定适合于非西方投资者的境外投资决策，甚至会产生误导。中西方在非洲投资不同的效果就是例证。事实上国家风险分析理论迄今未考虑文化与价值观差异，对各类风险的相互作用也鲜有量化研究。本项目拟将Hofstede文化维度理论引入国家风险分析，在文化度量空间里探讨各类风险错综复杂的关系；通过跨时期综合风险动态效用叠加，创建新的、纳入文化差异的国家风险评估体系；调查中国主要经济伙伴国的风险数据，检验新理论对中国海外经济活动决策的适切性，并对主要伙伴国的国家风险进行评估和预测。这将为我国海外投资、外贸及政府涉外部门提供风险决策与管理的科学依据，也有利于为我国争取国家风险分析领域的话语权。

中文关键词： 国家风险；文化维度；风险感知；效用叠加；非参数模型

英文摘要： Country risk refers to a collection of uncertainties associated with investing in and trading with a foreign country. The conventional country risk analysis focuses on clustering countries into different classes according to their overal risk index including political, economic and social risks. Practically dominated by several Western credit rating agencies as Standard & Poor's et al, the risk perception is indeed based on western mainstream cultural values. This possibly misleads non-Western investors in their decision making in overseas markets. The differential investment activities of Chinese and Westerners, as well as their results in Africa are examples of this issue. The conventional country risk theory excludes cultural differences up to now. Actually there are few previous studies on quantification of interactions amoung various risks. The present research intends to originate a country risk framework with incorporation of the Hofstede cultural theory. We shall reveal the intricate relationship amoung risks in a cutural metric space. Using a cross-period dynamic utility-additive (UTADIS) model, we shall create a country risk assessment system featured with cultural gaps. The new theory will be evaluated empirically with China's major economic and trading partners' risk data using survey studies. Furthermore, China's major partners' country risk will be assessed and forecasted. This research will allow Chinese scholars and policy makers to cast their own voices in the domain of country risk assessment, as well as to provide Chinese governments and investors with a scientific basis for decision making in oversea markets.

英文关键词： Country risk;Cultural dimensions;Risk perception;UTADIS;Non-parametric model