基于缓冲管理的项目进度风险应对与控制方法研究

项目名称： 基于缓冲管理的项目进度风险应对与控制方法研究

项目编号： No.71271097

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 崔南方

作者单位： 华中科技大学

项目金额： 56万元

中文摘要： 在不确定性较大的项目环境中，项目准时交付的难度越来越大，项目进度风险管理至关重要。基于PERT的进度风险分析方法因其活动安全时间的分散使用、没有考虑行为因素的影响等不足，受到人们的质疑。关键链项目管理方法则可以弥补这些不足，其中的缓冲管理提供了有效的进度风险管理思想与方法。本项目将缓冲管理方法与基于PERT的进度风险分析方法相结合，综合应用贝叶斯信念网络、系统仿真等方法，系统研究进度风险的识别与评估、基于风险的缓冲计算方法、缓冲配置方式、基于缓冲的进度风险应对计划、缓冲和活动敏感性指标的动态计算方法、基于活动敏感性的动态缓冲监控模型，提出系统的基于缓冲管理的进度风险应对与控制方法。本项目的研究不仅可以在理论上完善项目进度风险管理与关键链项目管理的内容，而且对指导企业成功应用基于缓冲管理的进度风险应对与控制方法解决实际问题，具有重要的现实意义。

中文关键词： 进度风险；关键链；缓冲管理；鲁棒项目调度；优化算法

英文摘要： In the project environment with large uncertainty, the On-time delivery of projects is facing with the increasing difficulty. The project schedule risk management has become more and more important. There are many critical reviews about schedule risk analysis based on PERT because of its decentralized safety time and without considering the impact of behavioral factors. Critical Chain Project Management has been a popular approach to project management and Buffer Management has been a effective approach to schedule risk management. This research project will combine buffer management and schedule risk analysis based on PERT. Based on the synthetical application of Bayesian belief network and system simulation method, a systematic study of schedule risk response and control methods is made, and the main research works include: schedule risk identification and assessment, risk-based buffer sizing approaches, buffer allocation methods, buffer-based schedule risk response plan, dynamic buffer and sensitivity indexes sizing approaches, sensitivity index-based dynamic buffer control methods. The schedule risk response and control method based on buffer management will be proposed. The research result not only can in theory extend project schedule risk management and critical chain project management, but also it has a

英文关键词： schedule risk；critical chain；buffer management；robust project scheduling；optimization algorithm