项目名称: 复杂性建模下项目风险管理的研究
项目编号: No.71301123
项目类型: 青年科学基金项目
立项/批准年度: 2014
项目学科: 管理科学
项目作者: 房超
作者单位: 武汉大学
项目金额: 20.5万元
中文摘要: 工程项目及项目风险的结构日趋复杂,现有的研究理论和方法已无法满足实际问题的需要。针对大型工程项目中风险管理的重要性和复杂性,本项目综合运用网络理论、复杂性理论、仿真计算、运筹优化等方法,研究了复杂性建模下项目管理中风险分析和风险决策优化等问题。主要研究内容为:(1)建立描述风险复杂性的网络模型,对风险在网络中的作用和重要性进行多元化分析;(2)提出数学仿真模型分析网络中的风险传播行为,实现对风险特征更加准确和定量化的评估及排序;(3)根据风险特征和关联性,进行各种风险聚类分析,指导风险管理团队的组织;(4)设计管理优化模型和算法,实现最佳的风险应对规划方案,对有限资源进行合理分配。本项目的研究将构建起新的项目风险管理决策支持系统框架,处在风险复杂性建模和项目风险管理的理论研究前沿。研究成果将极大丰富现有理论方法,为推进实际应用作出贡献,尤其对提升我国在该领域的研究水平和影响力具有重要意义。
中文关键词: 项目风险管理;复杂性;风险网络;最优化;决策支持
英文摘要: Due to the growing complexity of engineering projects and project risks, existing thoery and methods become unable to deal with real problems in practice. The proposed project will use network theory, complexity theory, simulation techniques and optimization methods to study risk analysis and managerial decisions optimization in project management. The study includes: (1) build complex risk network model, to analyze the role and importance of risk factors in the network structure with respect to various managerial purposes; (2) develop and run simulaiton model to describe risk propagation behavior in the risk network, aiming at obtaining more reliable risk analysis results in terms of quantitative and more accurate risk assessment and risk prioritization results; (3) conduct risk clustering based on risk characteristics and risk interactions, in order to help the organization of risk management team; (4) develop optimization model and algorithms under various constraints, to guide the effective risk response planning and achieve the optimal allocation of tight resources. This proposal will help the development of an integrated and systematic framework of decision support system for project risk management. The topic is innovative on the theoretical research domains such as risk complexity modeling and project ri
英文关键词: Project Risk Management;Complexity;Risk Network;Optimization;Decision Support