区域干旱过程模拟和农业干旱风险评价及应对研究

项目名称： 区域干旱过程模拟和农业干旱风险评价及应对研究

项目编号： No.51279072

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 曹永强

作者单位： 辽宁师范大学

项目金额： 82万元

中文摘要： 本基金以受旱灾影响严重的辽宁省为研究区，通过定点实验、站点观测、遥感反演以及作物生长模型等手段，从降水－蒸发－产汇流等流域水循环角度，构建改进的PDSI的辽宁省干旱发展过程模拟模型、基于土壤水量平衡模型的土壤墒情模拟模型和基于GFS降水预报信息的土壤墒情预报模型，揭示干旱发展的时空演变规律，提出干旱特性动态指标体系及旱情综合评估方法。通过对干旱灾害风险机理、风险识别及估测模型、干旱风险指标、干旱灾害风险模型等基础问题的研究，考虑危险性、暴露性、脆弱性及抗旱减灾能力，将可变模糊集和投影寻综技术应用于农业干旱风险评价中，形成风险区划图。根据风险评价结果对夏玉米种植适宜度进行分析，确定研究区玉米种植布局。结合未来变化条件下干旱灾害演变趋势，分析不同干旱情景、不同风险水平下区域农业旱灾风险应对预案。从水土资源调控方面提出干旱灾害的整体、分类型与分区域的风险应对策略，并分析风险应对策略的实施效果。

中文关键词： 农业干旱；干旱过程模拟；风险评价；干旱应对；辽宁省

英文摘要： Abstract:This fund takes Liaoning Province as research area, which is a region seriously affected by agricultural drought disasters. By means of certain-point experiment, site observation, remote sensing refutation and crop-grown model, a drought disaster forecast model is established from the perspective of precipitation-evaporation-runoff yield of hydrologic cycle angle to simulate the development process of drought in a condition of lower precipitation, based on the support of grid distributed hydrographical model. At the same time, in order to reveal the space-time evolution rule and the dominant influence factors of drought developemnt, a soiltilth simulation model based on soil moisture balance simulation modesl and a soiltilth forecast model based on GFS precipitation prediction imformation were put forward, and a dynamic indicator system and a drought comprehensive assessment method reflect major characteristic of drought development were further proposed. Considering all the characteristics of drought risk such as danger, openness, vulnerability and drought disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, the fuzzy variable set approach and projection pursuit technique were applied to comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought disasters risk, and agricultural drought risk planning charts were made.We

英文关键词： Agricultural drought；Simulation of drought process；Risk assessment；Plans for drought；Liaoning Province