流域水文极端事件时空演变特征及其对气候变化的响应机理

项目名称： 流域水文极端事件时空演变特征及其对气候变化的响应机理

项目编号： No.51279139

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 张利平

作者单位： 武汉大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 区域气候异常造成的洪涝灾害、干旱灾害等水文极端事件正成为人类生存所面临的重大挑战。本项目面向国家水资源重大战略需求和洪旱灾害研究国际前沿，以增强应对气候变化对我国水资源安全影响与适应性对策的基础科学支持能力为目标，通过气候变化背景下我国典型流域的历史记载资料和近代水文气象要素观测的事实分析，识别和建立水文极端事件的指标体系，揭示水文极端事件发生频率和强度的时空分布规律与演变趋势；构建描述水文极端事件的多变量联合概率分布模型，通过IPCC AR4的多个气候动力学模式对未来100年的预估信息，研究水文极端事件发生对未来气候变化的响应特征，科学评估水文极端事件与气候变化的相互作用机理。通过气候变化背景下极端水文事件影响研究的理论与方法的提出，为应对气候变化和我国水资源安全保障奠定科学基础和技术支撑。

中文关键词： 水文极端事件；时空演变特征；气候变化；响应机理；不确定性

英文摘要： Hydrological extreme events such as flood disaster and drought disaster caused by the regional climate anomalies have become the major challenges for human existence.The project face the national water resources major strategy demand and the international flood and drought disaster research frontier，intend to enhance basic science support ability to the water resources security and adaptation strategies for climate change in China. through the analysis of the history record and the modern hydro-meteorological observation data under the climate change in China typical watershed, distinguish and establish the index system of the hydrological extreme events, reveal the space-time distribution and the evolution trend of the hydrological extreme events' frequency and intensity, construct the multivariate joint probability distribution model for describing the hydrological extreme events, study the hydrological extremes response characteristics for the future climate change based on the next 100 years forecasting information of the IPCC AR4 multiple climate dynamics models, scientifically assess the interaction mechanism between the hydrological extreme events and the climate change. By putting forward the research theory and method of the hydrological extreme events influence under the climate change, we can provide

英文关键词： hydrological extreme events；space-time distribution characteristics；climate change；response characteristics；uncertainty