基于不确定性的区域农业多水源优化配置与风险决策模型研究

项目名称： 基于不确定性的区域农业多水源优化配置与风险决策模型研究

项目编号： No.51509036

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 李晨洋

作者单位： 东北农业大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 多水源优化研究过程中不确定性因素对系统的影响很大，区域农业系统也表现出用水效率低、优化方案难于与水环境的承载能力相协调、忽略生态环境安全等问题，因此本项目将区域农业多水源视为一个复合系统，进行基于不确定性的多水源优化配置及风险决策整合研究。首先，以“水资源-社会经济-生态环境”可持续发展为前提，运用不确定性方法与技术深入分析二元水循环模式影响下的区域农业多水源复合系统的演变规律、不确定性特征、层次结构及联系机制；第二，建立区间参数机会约束混合整数规划模型和多水源优化经济模型，分别确定这两种优化模型的约束因素及边界参数，并对比资源优化方案集；构建区域多水源优化配置风险决策模型；研究与验证三江平原多水源优化配置方案及其优选问题。研究成果完善与丰富了农业水资源管理领域的不确定性方法及其应用研究体系，对于区域农业多水源资源配置高效利用、实现水资源的可持续利用具有现实指导意义。

中文关键词： 不确定性；农业多水源；二元水循环；优化；风险决策方法

英文摘要： The uncertain factors in the process of water resource optimal research have great influence on the system, and the regional agricultural system also shows some problems, for example, low water use efficiency, the optimization scheme is difficult to coordinate with the carrying capacity of water environment, ignoring the coordination of ecological environment security and so on. Therefore, we apply the idea of system engineering in a composite system of regional multi-water, and integrate the research of optimal allocation and risk decision-making under uncertainty. Firstly, with the premise of sustainable development, analyzing in-depth the Evolution law, uncertainty characteristics, hierarchy and mechanism of the complex system of regional agriculture water by using the theory uncertainty theory under the influence of binary water cycle,; And then setting up two kinds of regional agricultural water utilization optimization model under uncertainty, as well as determining the model parameters and boundary constraint factors, and contrasting two different decision results; Constructing a regional water resource optimal model of evaluation index system and risk decision model; Researching and validating the problems of optimal allocation scheme of Sanjiang plain, and puts forward the reform ideas and countermeasures meeting management system and operating mechanism. Research results improve and enrich the theory of uncertainty and its application research system. It shows important theoretical and practical significance to construct the sanjiang plain water security early warning mechanism, realize the sustainable utilization of water resources, promote the adjustment of industrial structure, ensure national food security and water security.

英文关键词： Uncertainty;Agricultural multi-water ;Binary water cycle;Optimization;Risk decision-making method