流域下垫面变化对水利工程防洪影响不确定性问题的研究—以大清河白洋淀防洪体系为例

项目名称： 流域下垫面变化对水利工程防洪影响不确定性问题的研究—以大清河白洋淀防洪体系为例

项目编号： No.51279123

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 冯平

作者单位： 天津大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 项目以大清河白洋淀防洪体系为背景，在进行充分现场调研、勘察和测量分析的基础上，以海河流域大清河水系白洋淀防洪区的水库群、堤坝、围埝、堰闸等水利工程为实例，对大清河白洋淀入淀洪水产汇流特征、下垫面变化对入淀洪水影响和洪水计算过程及结果的不确定性进行分析，探讨流域下垫面变化对入淀洪水径流过程的作用机制，分析淀区洪水灾害的形成和控制机理，确定其成灾风险程度。对区域防洪技术资料和水利工程特征曲线进行修订，把风险分析理论和方法用于区域水利工程调度运行的不确定性评估和应急管理，进行流域下垫面变化对水利工程防洪影响和洪水资源利用不确定性问题的研究。提出不同工况情况下相应的白洋淀区域洪水调控方案和工程应对措施，给出大清河白洋淀区域现状条件下的防洪调度和洪水资源利用应急方案，为区域防洪管理和水资源利用提供重要的科学依据。

中文关键词： 下垫面；水利工程；防洪影响；不确定性；白洋淀

英文摘要： Regarding flood control system of Baiyangdian Lake in Da Qing River valley as background, the project is based on fully investigation, reconnaissance and measure on the scene. Hydraulic projects such as groups of reservoirs, dyke, leveling enclosing banks, floodgates etc. where are located in flood control area of Baiyangdian Lake in Haihe Basin, are taken as an example. The characteristics of rainfall runoff in Baiyangdian Lake, the impacts of flood of passing into the lake because off underlying surface variation, the uncertainties of the process and the results due to flood calculation will be all analyzed. And then we guarantee the flood risk levels with underlying surface variation when explore runoff process mechanism, analyze floods formation and control mechanism. After that, regional flood control technology data and hydraulic project characteristic curves can be reformulated. The risk analysis theory and methods use in regional hydraulic project of dispatching operation uncertainty evaluation and emergency management, so that we can do research into uncertainties about the influences of hydraulic projects on flood control the using of flood resources, which result in underlying surface variation. At last, we also put forward corresponding regional flood control scheme and engineering measures in differ

英文关键词： underlying surface；hydraulic projec；flood control impact；uncertainty；Baiyangdian Lake