基于可持续发展的城市水安全-水循环耦联系统综合评价及管理规划研究

项目名称： 基于可持续发展的城市水安全-水循环耦联系统综合评价及管理规划研究

项目编号： No.71203158

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 徐瑾

作者单位： 天津理工大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 本课题针对我国城市水资源匮乏制约社会经济可持续发展问题，拟将城市水安全及水循环系统综合评价及管理规划为研究对象，首先构建城市水安全-水循环耦联系统，研究系统内各子系统间的相互作用与转化机制；在分析城市水资源需求结构与变化特点的基础上，科学预测城市需水量，进而建立城市水安全-水循环耦联系统可持续发展的评价指标体系和评价模型，采用灰色模糊评价方法进行求解；同时探讨在可持续发展理论原则下的城市水循环系统管理规划问题，建立城市水安全-水循环耦联系统不确定规划模型，采用智能寻优算法进行求解；最终由上述综合评价结果和不确定规划模型计算结果，从可持续发展视角出发，制定科学的城市水安全-水循环耦联系统发展规划。课题预期将从理论上揭示城市水安全-水循环系统各影响因素相互作用机制，阐明水安全状况下城市水循环系统长期规划管理对策的影响规律。因此，本课题研究具有重要的理论意义与实践价值。

中文关键词： 城市水安全；城市水循环；综合评价；PSO-BP算法；不确定规划

英文摘要： This research analyzed and discussed the problem of water resource deficiency in our cities which is the main restriction for the sustainable development of social economy. The object of study focused on the comprehensive evaluation and management plan for urban water safety and water circulation system. To construct urban water safety and water cycle coupling system firstly and analyze the interaction and transformation between different parts of this system. Meanwhile, based on the analysis of water resources demand structure and change characteristics to forecast the water demand in cities scientifically, and then to set up a kind of evaluation index system and evaluation model for urban water safety and water cycle coupling system, and use grey fuzzy evaluation to solve. Secondly, management plan about urban water cycle system is discussed under the theory of the sustainable development. To construct uncertain programming model of urban water safety and water cycle coupling system, and adopt intelligent optimization algorithm for solution. Based on the perspective of sustainable development and considering the results of comprehensive evaluation and uncertain programming model to build a scientific development plan for urban water safety and water cycle coupling system. In this research, the interaction betw

英文关键词： city water security system；city water cycle system；comprehensive evaluation；PSO-BP algorithm；uncertain programming