基于风险的城市多水源柔性配置与评价研究

项目名称： 基于风险的城市多水源柔性配置与评价研究

项目编号： No.51209169

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利科学与海洋工程学科

项目作者： 莫淑红

作者单位： 西安理工大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 以城市多水源配置中的不确定性问题为研究对象，将城市多水源系统视为受多种因素影响的不确定性系统，提出城市供需水系统中各类不确定性因素的定量描述方法，弥补目前定性分析研究存在的不足；建立具有"柔性"的城市多水源配置模型，系统性地处理包含多种不确定性的定量和定性因素，并能充分体现多元决策者主体的意见和偏好，使配置结果更符合实际；引入多场景区间理论和风险评估理论，建立基于风险度的城市水资源灵活配置评价模型，能够计及各种不确定性因素对规划结果的影响，以最佳的灵活配置方案来适应未来环境的变化，从而使配置方案在总体上达到最优。以陕西省西安市为例进行模型应用研究。研究成果将为城市多水源合理配置研究提供一条不确定性分析的新途径，具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。

中文关键词： 城市水资源；配置；需水量预测；不确定性；决策

英文摘要： The Uncertainties in the urban water resources allocations are considerated as the main object of the study, and the urban water supply and water demand management system are regarded as uncertain system. Firstly, putting forward quantitative methods to describe the kinds of uncertain factors in urban water supply and water demand problems, which can be helpful for making up the study by qualitative analysis now. Secondly, establishing a urban water resources allocation model with "flexibility", which is able to deal with those complicated factors systematicly, and express multielement decision maker's opinions and preferences to the full, leading to more corresponding schemes with reality. Meanwhile，establishing a urban water resources allocation model based on risk degree evaluation, in which, multi scenario interval theory and risk assessment theory are introduced to handle the effects from different factors on program results to realize flexible allocation, the best schemes can accommodate the future changing conditions, so leading to a total optimal scheme. At last, The Xi'an city in Shaanxi province will be used as a case study of the above model. Research findings from above may offer a new method based on uncertain analysis for rational urban water resources allocation, which has great importance in theo

英文关键词： Urban water resources；allocation；water demand forecasting；uncertainty；decision-making