新型因果关系分析法理论及应用研究

项目名称： 新型因果关系分析法理论及应用研究

项目编号： No.61473110

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 张建海

作者单位： 杭州电子科技大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 格兰杰因果关系法是近几十年来最经典的因果分析法(它是格兰杰获得诺贝尔经济学奖三大贡献之一)。近些年申请者挑战了这一方法，指出其根本不能定义真正的因果关系的大小，并提出了新因果关系法，以大量实例阐述了格兰杰因果关系法的缺陷和不足以及新方法的合理性和优越性。本项目在前述成果的基础上拟继续开展因果关系的理论和应用的探索研究。本项目研究内容: 一是将基于单变量间的新因果关系法推广到群或组间，探讨新因果关系法的各种潜在的性质，形成完整的新因果关系方法理论体系；二是用新因果关系法研究癫痫病灶的定位、研究与视听觉认知相关的脑功能网络信息传递流向情况、研究基于运动想象的脑-机接口应用。也运用该方法研究经济规律中因果现象，比如影响经济增长的各种因素分析并量化各因素的影响值，从而对于了解经济增长态势、制定国家宏观调控政策有重要意义。本项目的研究结果提供反映真实因果关系新方法，将在神经学和经济学中得到广泛应用。

中文关键词： 因果关系分析；认知计算；脑电信号；脑机接口；视听觉信息

英文摘要： Granger Causality (GC) is widely used in recent decades (it is one of three contributions for his Nobel prize).In recent years we challege this method , point out it is not real causality at all and define new causality. We show shortcomings/limitations of GC and also show new causality is reasonable and advantageous over GC. This project will continue to study new causality based on our previous results. It will inclue two aspects: 1. Extend new causality definition among single variables to among groups of variables of time series, discuss their potential properties and form a complete new causality method; 2. Apply the new causality to determine the localization of epileptic foci, study causal flow among the brain function networks related to the visual and auditory cognitive and the application in BCI based on motor imagery, and also study causal phenomenon in ecomonics. For example, analyze causal effect on ecomonic growth from all factors which have impacts on economic growth.Thus,it will help to understand direction of economic growth and will have importance to make a decision on macro economics adjustment. The results in this project will provide new causality definitions which may have wide applications in economics and neuroscience.

英文关键词： causal analysis;cognitive computing;EEG;brain-computer interface;audio-visual information