社交网络形成与演化规律的定量分析模型及其应用研究

项目名称： 社交网络形成与演化规律的定量分析模型及其应用研究

项目编号： No.71501034

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李永立

作者单位： 东北大学

项目金额： 18.5万元

中文摘要： 研究社交网络形成和演化规律的定量分析模型，将有助于解释网络形成的微观原因，并为预测和控制网络的演化提供理论支持。既有的模型以广泛采用的指数随机图模型为代表，往往具有缺乏预测能力、缺少控制机制、算法复杂度高等方面的不足；鉴于此，本课题以策略网络形成理论为基础，拟提出具有较高预测精度和较低算法复杂度，适用于大规模数据分析和普遍适用性的定量模型。在模型的建立过程中，将重点研究网络决策者的效用函数、建立链接的博弈规则、推断模型参数的估计算法等三方面的研究内容，并对模型的预测精度和参数的作用进行全面地仿真验证；在模型的应用中，面向以Facebook、微信等为代表的社会媒体平台，平台上的社交网络构成了信息传播的渠道和骨架；本课题立足于社交网络动态变化的视角，将理论模型应用于社会媒体平台上的信息管理问题，以期达到优化信息传播结构、预测舆论传播规模和控制不良消息传播的目标，丰富大数据背景下的管理模型。

中文关键词： 网络演化；策略网络形成理论；社会媒体平台；社交网络；数据分析

英文摘要： It would not only facilitate explaining the reasons of network formation from the microcosmic angle, but also benefit predicting and controlling network evolution that the study on a quantitative model for exploring network formation and evolution. The existing quantitative models, represented by exponential random graph, often suffer from the deficiency of spotty prediction, the lack of efficient controlling ability and the shortcomings of time-consuming algorithms. To overcome these mentioned disadvantages, this project will borrows some ideas from strategic network formation theory and accordingly propose a new quantitative model which would cost less calculation time, cope with the large-scale data set and also enjoy relatively higher prediction precision. As for the process of making model, three aspects of research contents will be implemented that are the utility functions of network participants, the game rules of establishing linkages and the estimation method of inferring parameters; Moreover, a series of comprehensive simulations will be carried out to validate the precision of estimation algorithm and the functions of these parameters introduced in this model. As for the applications, the newly established theoretic model will be applied into the social media platforms such as Facebook, WeChat and Microblog, where the social networks of participants constitute the channels for information dissemination. By focusing on the evolution of social networks, this model would be applied into the problem of information management in the social media platform. Accordingly, this study, which aims to enrich the tools of information management in the background of big data, would have direct implications on optimizing information dissemination structure, regulating the scale of public opinion dissemination, and mitigating the spread of negative message.

英文关键词： Network Evolution;Strategic Network Formation Theory;Social Media Platform;Social Networks;Data Analysis