Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.
翻译:多数最先进的天气和气候建模方法都是以物理上了解的大气数字模型为基础的。这些方法旨在模拟非线性动态和多种变量之间的复杂互动,这些变量是难以估计的。此外,许多此类数字模型都是在计算上密集的,特别是在以细微的空间和时间分辨率模拟大气现象时。基于机器学习的最近数据驱动方法旨在直接解决下游预测或预测任务,方法是利用深神经网络学习数据驱动功能绘图,但这些网络是使用为特定的波形时空任务调和同质气候数据集来进行训练的,因此缺乏数字模型的通用性能。我们开发并展示了一个灵活和通用的天气和气候科学深层学习模型,该模型可以使用包含不同变量的混杂数据集、空洞覆盖和物理地面学前。 ClimaX将变异结构扩展为新的编码和汇总块,允许在维护一般用途时有效地利用现有的精确度校正。 ClimaX在进行自我校准的天气预测前,在对一般天气预测中进行自我校准的精度和精确的精确的精确的精确的精确的气候和精确的天气分析,在气候变压的模型分析前的演算中可以显示现有的气候变压的精确的精确的模型。