Sequential Stratified Regeneration: MCMC for Large State Spaces with an Application to Subgraph Count Estimation

This work considers the general task of estimating the sum of a bounded function over the edges of a graph, given neighborhood query access and where access to the entire network is prohibitively expensive. To estimate this sum, prior work proposes Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that use random walks started at some seed vertex and whose equilibrium distribution is the uniform distribution over all edges, eliminating the need to iterate over all edges. Unfortunately, these existing estimators are not scalable to massive real-world graphs. In this paper, we introduce Ripple, an MCMC-based estimator that achieves unprecedented scalability by stratifying the Markov chain state space into ordered strata with a new technique that we denote {\em sequential stratified regenerations}. We show that the Ripple estimator is consistent, highly parallelizable, and scales well. We empirically evaluate our method by applying Ripple to the task of estimating connected, induced subgraph counts given some input graph. Therein, we demonstrate that Ripple is accurate and can estimate counts of up to $12$-node subgraphs, which is a task at a scale that has been considered unreachable, not only by prior MCMC-based methods but also by other sampling approaches. For instance, in this target application, we present results in which the Markov chain state space is as large as $10^{43}$, for which Ripple computes estimates in less than $4$ hours, on average.