Mapping the Spiral of Silence: Surveying Unspoken Opinions in Online Communities

We often treat social media as a lens onto society. How might that lens be distorting the actual popularity of political and social viewpoints? In this paper, we examine the difference between the viewpoints publicly posted in a community and the privately surveyed viewpoints of community members, contributing a measurement of a theory called the "spiral of silence." This theory observes that people are less likely to voice their opinion when they believe they are in the minority--leading to a spiral where minority opinions are less likely to be shared, so they appear even further in the minority, and become even less likely to be shared. We surveyed active members of politically oriented Reddit communities to gauge their willingness to post on contentious topics, yielding 627 responses from 108 participants about 11 topics and 33 subreddits. We find that 72.6% of participants who perceive themselves in the minority remain silent, and are only half as likely to post their viewpoint compared to those who believe their opinion is in the majority. Communities perceived as being more inclusive reduce the magnitude of this effect. These results emphasize how far out of step the opinions we see online may be with the population they purport to represent.