“杰文斯”悖论、能效政策改进与“双控目标”分解

项目名称： “杰文斯”悖论、能效政策改进与“双控目标”分解

项目编号： No.71473070

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李金铠

作者单位： 河南财经政法大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 提高能源效率，实施节能政策，框定节能目标已成为当前世界各国解决能源安全，应对气候变化的战略举措。但各国发展实践与现有文献研究都表明：能源回弹效应普遍存在。缓解能源回弹效应，确保节能政策的有效性，才可使能源效率真正成为人类经济社会发展的第四种能源。本项目拟综合采用线性规划、均衡理论、消费经济等理论与方法深入研究和揭示能源回弹效应的作用机制；将回弹效应视为特殊能源需求模块，构建包括回弹效应在内的能源系统分析模型，进行数值模拟仿真，科学测算回弹效应；客观评估我国能效政策的有效性，探索我国缓解回弹效应的路径。在此基础上，基于能效改进和节能减排倒逼机制，建立和开发的我国能耗和电耗双控目标分解的指标体系与工具。本项目的研究对于丰富能源回弹效应有重要的理论价值，对评估和改进我国能效政策，实现节能减排目标具有重要的决策参考价值。

中文关键词： 杰文斯悖论；回弹效应；NEMS模型；目标分解

英文摘要： To improve energy efficiency, implementation of energy saving policy and Determine energy-saving target has become an important strategic initiative to solve energy security and climate change strategy. However, many countries' development experience and literature studies show the energy rebound effect exists generally and Jevons paradox are widespread phenomenon. Alleviating the energy rebound effect and ensuring the validity of energy saving policy are important guarantee to make energy efficiency really become the fourth power of human economic and social development. This project intends to adopt linear programming; equilibrium theory and consumption theory research methods to analysis the mechanism of action of in-depth study and reveal the energy rebound effect. Building rebound effect analysis model includes Special energy demand that the rebound effects are regarded as a special energy demand module; the research carries on the numerical simulation and accurately measures the rebound effect to evaluate the policy of energy efficiency and explore the path of reducing rebound effect. On this basis, the study establishes and develops the China's energy consumption index system of target decomposition of double control and implementation tool , which based on energy-saving, emission-reduction and the double control goal of energy consumption. The study has important theory value for developing energy rebound effects theory , decision-making reference value to evaluate and improve the energy efficiency policies and achieving the goal of emission-reduction and the double control goal in our country. The objective of the study has important value for enriching energy rebound effects, evaluating and improving the energy efficiency policies in our country and implementing energy conservation and emissions reduction targets.

英文关键词： Jevons paradox;rebound effect;NEMS model;goal decoposition