太阳活动11年周期影响春季NAO与东亚夏季风关系的过程及机理研究

项目名称： 太阳活动11年周期影响春季NAO与东亚夏季风关系的过程及机理研究

项目编号： No.41505050

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 周群

作者单位： 国家海洋环境预报中心

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 太阳活动影响NAO模态是太阳活动作用于东亚季风的重要环节，而春季NAO是东亚夏季风的潜在预报因子，然而前人的工作多局限于研究太阳活动影响冬季NAO模态及相关的东亚冬季风的异常，对春季NAO变化特征的相关研究则较为薄弱。已有研究表明，平流层-对流层耦合在NAO响应过程中可能有重要作用，但往往也只关注冬季的变化情况。本项目基于观测资料和再分析资料，首先分析太阳活动作用下，春季NAO与东亚夏季风关系的变化及其中涉及的关键过程，探讨NAO空间型的差异，揭示太阳活动调制作用的可能的物理机制。进一步，就太阳活动对春季平流层极涡崩溃过程及信号下传的作用进行诊断分析，从准定常行星波的异常传播入手，揭示极涡崩溃与对流层NAO模态变化的必然联系。在此基础上，结合QBO不同位相，讨论平流层极涡崩溃及与之相联系的对流层大气环流改变对太阳活动的响应，寻求太阳活动与QBO综合效应的可能机理。

中文关键词： 太阳活动；NAO；东亚夏季风；准定常行星波；QBO

英文摘要： The impacts of solar on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are the key processes which carry the solar variations to the East Asian climate change. Since the EASM (East Asian Summer Monsoon) varies with spring NAO, the influences of the solar cycle on the spring NAO-EASM relationship and NAO patterns received much less attention than the wintertime situation in previous studies. Some evidence has shown that the coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere plays a crucial role in the NAO responses. In order to explore the physical processes and understand the mechanisms evolved in the solar impacts on the spring NAO-EASM relationship, based on the observational data and reanalysis data, we firstly investigate the changes of relationship between the NAO and EASM with the solar activity and the related critical processes. Moreover, the braking-up of the polar vortex and the related circulation variations in the lower troposphere are studied in this project to illustrate the NAO responses to the solar activity. By analyzing the activity of stationary planetary wave anomalies, the combined impacts of solar cycle and the QBO on the breaking-up of the polar vortex in the stratosphere and the NAO patterns in the troposphere are further discussed.

英文关键词： solar activity;NAO;EASM;stationary planetary wave;QBO