Real-world complex systems are often modelled by sets of equations with endogenous and exogenous variables. What can we say about the causal and probabilistic aspects of variables that appear in these equations without explicitly solving the equations? We make use of Simon's causal ordering algorithm (Simon, 1953) to construct a causal ordering graph and prove that it expresses the effects of soft and perfect interventions on the equations under certain unique solvability assumptions. We further construct a Markov ordering graph and prove that it encodes conditional independences in the distribution implied by the equations with independent random exogenous variables, under a similar unique solvability assumption. We discuss how this approach reveals and addresses some of the limitations of existing causal modelling frameworks, such as causal Bayesian networks and structural causal models.
翻译:现实世界复杂系统往往以一系列与内生变量和外生变量的方程式为模型。 对于这些方程式中出现的变量的因果和概率方面,在没有明确解析方程式的情况下,我们可以说什么? 我们利用西蒙的因果定购算法(Simon,1953年)来构建因果定购图,并证明它代表了某些独特的可溶性假设下的软和完美干预对方程式的影响。我们进一步构建了Markov定购图,并证明它以类似的独有可溶性假设,用独立的随机外生变量对等方所隐含的分布条件性独立进行了编码。我们讨论了这一方法如何揭示和解决现有因果建模框架的一些局限性,如因果贝叶网络和结构性因果模型。