Designing and Evaluating Sampling Strategies for Multiple-Forecast Visualization (MFV)

With the growing availability of quantitative forecasts from various sources, effectively communicating these multiple forecasts has become increasingly crucial. Recent advances have explored using Multiple-Forecast Visualizations (MFVs) to display multiple time-series forecasts. However, how to systematically sample from a pool of disparate forecasts to create MFVs that effectively facilitate decision-making requires further investigation. To address this challenge, we examine two cluster-based sampling strategies for creating MFVs and three designs for visualizing them to assist people in decision-making with forecasts. Through two online studies (Experiment 1 n = 711 and Experiment 2 n = 400) and over 15 decision-making-related metrics, we evaluated participants' perceptions of eight visualization designs using historical COVID-19 forecasts as a test bed. Our findings revealed that one sampling method significantly enhanced participants' ability to predict future outcomes, thereby reducing their surprise when confronted with the actual outcomes. Importantly, since no approach excels in all metrics, we advise choosing different visualization designs based on communication goals. Furthermore, qualitative response data demonstrate a correlation between response consistency and people's inclination to extrapolate from the forecast segment of the visualization. This research offers insights into how to improve visualizations of multiple forecasts using an automated and empirically validated technique for selecting forecasts that outperform common techniques on several key metrics and reduce overplotting.