Traffic forecasting is a challenging problem due to complex road networks and sudden speed changes caused by various events on roads. A number of models have been proposed to solve this challenging problem with a focus on learning spatio-temporal dependencies of roads. In this work, we propose a new perspective of converting the forecasting problem into a pattern matching task, assuming that large data can be represented by a set of patterns. To evaluate the validness of the new perspective, we design a novel traffic forecasting model, called Pattern-Matching Memory Networks (PM-MemNet), which learns to match input data to the representative patterns with a key-value memory structure. We first extract and cluster representative traffic patterns, which serve as keys in the memory. Then via matching the extracted keys and inputs, PM-MemNet acquires necessary information of existing traffic patterns from the memory and uses it for forecasting. To model spatio-temporal correlation of traffic, we proposed novel memory architecture GCMem, which integrates attention and graph convolution for memory enhancement. The experiment results indicate that PM-MemNet is more accurate than state-of-the-art models, such as Graph WaveNet with higher responsiveness. We also present a qualitative analysis result, describing how PM-MemNet works and achieves its higher accuracy when road speed rapidly changes.
翻译:交通流量预测是一个挑战性的问题,原因是道路网络复杂,道路事件引发的突发速度变化造成交通流量预测问题。一些模型已经提出,以解决这一具有挑战性的问题,重点是学习道路的时空依赖性。在这项工作中,我们提出了将预测问题转化为模式匹配任务的新视角,假设大量数据可以用一套模式来表示。为了评估新视角的有效性,我们设计了一个新的交通流量预测模型,称为模式匹配记忆网络(PM-MemNet),它学会将输入数据与具有代表性的模式与关键价值的记忆结构相匹配。我们首先提取和分组具有代表性的交通模式,作为记忆中的关键。然后,通过匹配提取的钥匙和输入,PMMM-MEMNet从记忆中获取关于现有交通模式的必要信息,并利用这些数据进行预测。对于交通流量的模型,我们提出了新型的存储结构GCMemem,它将关注和图像回流纳入记忆强化。实验结果表明,PMEMNet比州-艺术模型更精确,我们用高的模型来快速地描述其质量速度变化。