Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal

Located in Southern Europe, the Drina River Basin is shared between three countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia. The power sectors of the three countries have a particularly high dependence on coal for power generation. In this paper we analyse different development pathways for achieving climate neutrality in these countries and explore the potential of variable renewable energy in the area, and its role in the decarbonization of the power sector. We investigate the possibility of whether hydro and non-hydro renewables can enable a net zero transition by 2050, and how renewable energy might affect the hydropower cascade shared by the three countries. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used to develop a model representation of the power sector of the countries. The findings of this analysis show that the renewable potential of the countries is a significant 94.4 GW. This potential is 68% to 287% higher than that of previous assessments, depending on the study of comparison. By 2050, 17% of this potential is utilized for VRE capacity additions under an Emission Limit scenario assuming net-zero. These findings suggest that the local VRE potential is sufficient to support the transition to net-zero. Scenarios with higher shares of solar and thermal power show increased power generation from the hydropower cascade, thus reducing the water available for purposes other than power generation.