The risk premium of a policy is the sum of the pure premium and the risk loading. In the classification ratemaking process, generalized linear models are usually used to calculate pure premiums, and various premium principles are applied to derive the risk loadings. No matter which premium principle is used, some risk loading parameters should be given in advance subjectively. To overcome this subjective problem and calculate the risk premium more reasonably and objectively, we propose a top-down method to calculate these risk loading parameters. First, we implement the bootstrap method to calculate the total risk premium of the portfolio. Then, under the constraint that the portfolio's total risk premium should equal the sum of the risk premiums of each policy, the risk loading parameters are determined. During this process, besides using generalized linear models, three kinds of quantile regression models are also applied, namely, traditional quantile regression model, fully parametric quantile regression model, and quantile regression model with coefficient functions. The empirical result shows that the risk premiums calculated by the method proposed in this study can reasonably differentiate the heterogeneity of different risk classes.
翻译:保单的风险溢价是纯溢价和风险负荷的总和。 在分类评级过程中,通常使用通用线性模型来计算纯溢价,并应用各种溢价原则来计算风险负荷。无论采用哪种保费原则,都应当事先主观地给出一些风险装载参数。为了克服这一主观问题和更合理和客观地计算风险溢价,我们提出了一个自上而下的方法来计算这些风险装载参数。首先,我们采用“靴套方法”来计算投资组合的总风险溢价。然后,由于限制投资组合的总风险溢价应等于每项保单的风险溢价总和,风险装载参数将被确定下来。在这一过程中,除了使用通用线性模型外,还应用了三种类型的四分位回归模型,即传统的四位回归模型、完全准四分位回归模型和带有系数函数的四位回归模型。实验结果表明,本研究中建议的方法所计算的风险溢价可以合理地区分不同风险类别的多样性。