不确定条件下退役机电产品回收与再制造的绿色绩效动态演化机制研究

项目名称： 不确定条件下退役机电产品回收与再制造的绿色绩效动态演化机制研究

项目编号： No.71473077

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 邓乾旺

作者单位： 湖南大学

项目金额： 56万元

中文摘要： 退役机电产品的回收与再制造对国家资源与环境等绿色绩效指标产生重大影响，但其影响机制尚未明了，缺乏系统性理论研究，尤其是其中诸多不确定性因素的存在，造成系统结构建模困难、绿色因子间量化耦合关系不明确、绿色绩效难于预测等难题，给政府科学决策带来挑战。针对以上问题，本项目以退役机电产品回收与再制造系统为对象，采用ISM和Petri网方法对系统的绿色因子及其耦合关系进行识别与定义，提出系统静态结构与动态过程模型，进而构建环境、资源、经济、人因等多维度系统动力学模型。通过对该模型的数值模拟，揭示绿色绩效的多级递阶动态演化机制及规律，对绿色绩效进行预测与评价。在此基础上，采用蒙特卡罗仿真和样本平均逼近方法对不确定性所引起的绿色绩效变化进行分析，并基于多目标随机优化方法寻求不确定条件下的最优决策，以从理论上提高政策制定的前瞻性。通过实证研究，提出支持退役机电产品回收与再制造绿色可持续发展的政策建议。

中文关键词： 不确定性；系统动力学；回收与再制造；绿色绩效；可持续发展

英文摘要： Recycling and remanufacturing of retired mechanical and electrical products have a significant impact on green performance such as national resources and environment, however, the mechanism underlying it has not been fully understood due to the lack of systematic studies on one hand, and especially due to the presence of uncertainties in the system on the other hand, which result in many difficulties in structure modeling , quantitative description of the coupling among green factors, as well as in the prediction of green performance. This poses consequently a big challenge to the government in making scientific decisions. This project is aimed to solve those problems by identifying and defining the green impact factors and their couplings based on ISM and Petri net, after which a static model for the system structure and a model for the system dynamics are proposed, in which multi- dimensional factors involving resources, environment, economy and human factor are considered. By means of numerical simulation of the models, the multi-level hierarchical mechanism and laws of dynamic evolution of green performance in recycling and remanufacturing of retired mechanical and electrical products are studied, and the green performance are predicted and evaluated. In order to treat with the uncertainties in the system, Monte Carlo simulation and Sample Average Approximation method are applied for the analysis of variance in the green performance caused by the presence of uncertainty. Based on it, optimal decisions under uncertainty are studied using stochastic multi-objective optimization approach, so that predictability of green policies made by the government can be improved on theoretical basis. Based on results of case studies, policy suggestions are to be made for the green sustainable development in the recycling and remanufacturing of retired mechanical and electronic products.

英文关键词： uncertainty;system dynamics;recycling and remanufacturing;green performance;sustainable development