项目名称: 西部国家重点生态功能区生态安全预警和仿真调控研究—以甘南黄河重要水源补给生态功能区为例
项目编号: No.71263045
项目类型: 地区科学基金项目
立项/批准年度: 2013
项目学科: 管理科学
项目作者: 张强
作者单位: 西北师范大学
项目金额: 38万元
中文摘要: 本课题围绕主体功能区建设中重点生态功能区的生态安全问题,采用理论研究与实例分析相结合的方式,通过多学科交叉融合,研究西部国家重点生态功能区生态安全预警方法和政策仿真调控机制,主要内容包括:(1)基于复杂系统脆性理论,对生态功能区生态安全的作用机理进行分析,揭示生态安全的系统本质和状态演化过程;(2)建立生态安全可拓预警模型,研究小样本生态安全预测方法,给出生态安全状态的可视化表示方法;(3)研究生态安全SD政策仿真调控模型和多情景分析方法,并采用云模型来确定系统动力学模型中的系统参数,试图解决系统动力学建模中参数定性定量转化和不确定性问题;(4)对甘南黄河重要水源补给生态功能区进行实证研究,提出相应的管理对策与建议。通过本研究,为生态功能区生态安全管理提供科学理论支撑和管理决策依据,对保障西部生态安全,促进主体功能区形成具有重要的理论和现实意义。
中文关键词: 生态功能区;生态安全;预警;仿真;群智感知
英文摘要: The project revolves ecological security problem about the significant eco- function areas. Using the combination of theoretical research and case analysis, ecological security early warning and simulation control of significant eco-function area of the West is studied through multidisciplinary integration. The main contents includes: (1)Studying on operation mechanism of regional ecological system security based on the brittleness theory and methods;(2)Developing an extension ecological security early warning model, researching a method of a small sample ecological security prediction and showing the visual expression way of the ecological security status;(3)Studying the ecological security of SD policy control model and multi-scenario analysis method, to determining the system parameters in the system dynamic model by using the cloud model, and trying to solve the problem of qualitative quantitative conversion and uncertainty parameters in the system dynamics modeling; (4) Making an empirical analysis of the Yellow River Water Supply Area of Gannan, proposing appropriate management measures and recommendations. This study provides theoretical underpinnings and management decision-making basis for the ecological function of ecological security management. Futher more, it provides an important theoretical and re
英文关键词: Eco-funtion area;Ecological Security;Early warning;System dynamics simulation;Crowd sensing