基于不确定条件下水资源承载力的经济发展规划风险分析

项目名称： 基于不确定条件下水资源承载力的经济发展规划风险分析

项目编号： No.41271536

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 郭萍

作者单位： 中国农业大学

项目金额： 75万元

中文摘要： 本项目将综合考虑石羊河流域水资源及其管理中的不确定性及社会经济发展中的不确定性因素，计算不确定条件下水资源承载力。以此作为研究区域经济发展规划制定的一个约束，使经济的发展与水资源相适应，同时，研究如何调整现有的水资源配置以适应现有的经济发展规划。通过优化分析理论建立不确定多阶段多目标的水资源承载力优化模型，该模型集成区间、模糊、随机等多种不确定性因素及各因素之间的相互耦合，并对该模型的求解方法展开详细研究。在不确定水资源承载力研究的基础上，建立合适的评价指标体系和评判标准，开展与研究区域水资源承载力相适应的社会经济发展规划风险分析。建立不同情景的风险分析模型及提出求解方法，并基于模型的求解结果，对研究区域的经济发展规划做出定量与定性的风险评估，提出石羊河流域与水资源承载力相适应的实现可循环经济的指导意见，为可持续发展提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 不确定性；水资源承载力；不确定性水资源承载力；优化方法；风险分析

英文摘要： In this project, the uncertain factors in water circulation ,water resources management and social-economic development in Shiyang River Basin will be comprehensively considered. Then the water carring capacity will be calculated under uncertainties. The social-econimic development planning would get with water resources carring capacity under above constraints. Moreover, how to adjust the existed water resources planning to accommodate the regional social-economic development planning is also desired. A multi-stages multi-objects optimization model under uncertainty will be proposed to calculate the water carring capacity. The model involving several uncertainties and their coupling, such as, interval, fuzzy, stochastic, and their combination. The approach to solve the presented model would be proposed. Based on the above described studies, the assessment index and evaluation standard under uncertainty would be established and the risk analysis for social and economic development in Shiyang River Basin will be developed. Finally, through multi-scenarios risk analysis and discussion, the risk assessment of regional econimic development planning under quality and quantity are addressed for the research area. The suggestions for Shiyang region circular economy under the regional water resources carring capacity c

英文关键词： Uncertainties；Water resource carrying capacity；Water resource carrying capacity under uncertainty；Optimization method；Risk analysis