国际陆港演化机理及仿真研究

项目名称： 国际陆港演化机理及仿真研究

项目编号： No.71463035

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 杨扬

作者单位： 昆明理工大学

项目金额： 33万元

中文摘要： 针对国际陆港与内陆区域经济之间的系统协同、国际陆港与海港间的博弈演化、陆港群内部的多陆港自组织演化等问题缺乏深入研究的现状，通过研究国际陆港演化机理以求解决这些问题。提出从宏观、中观和微观三个层面对陆港演化机理进行研究的理论框架体系；剖析国际陆港对内陆区域经济的影响途径，建立国际陆港-区域经济复合系统协同模型，以此探究两者的关联机制和协同效应；研究陆港-海港协同成长的动态演化过程和形成机制，建立陆港-海港演化博弈模型，采用计算机仿真方法进行演化过程动态模拟；利用Logistic增长模型和生物进化模型，建立陆港群内多陆港系统的演化方程，并提出相应的参数估计及拟合方法；基于Multi-Agent的建模方法构建陆港内部动态演化系统，设定不同外部条件对系统进行计算实验，通过涌现获取陆港内部复杂适应系统一般规律性认识；构建陆港物流绩效评价模型，对西部典型国际陆港进行实证研究。

中文关键词： 国际陆港；区域经济；演化机理；复杂适应系统；仿真

英文摘要： For the lack of in-deep studies on inland port, such as collaboration of the international inland port and inland region economy, evolution and game between international inland port and harbour, self-organization evolution problems in inland group system and other issues, the study of the land port evolution mechanisms is aimd to address these issues. The theoretical framework of land port evolution mechanism is analyzed from the macro, meso and micro views. The effects of international land port on the inland region economy is studied, and the collaborative model of international land port-regional economy system is established. The dynamic evolution process of inland port-harbour coordinated growth and the formation mechanism of collaborative development are explored. According to the research results，the game model and simulation model are established. Based on logistic growth model and biological evolution model, a dynamic equation of inland port group evolution is established and the methods of parameter estimation and equation fitting are given in detail through mathematical deduetion. On microcosmic view, we discuss the inland port complex adaptive system using Multi-Agent modeling method and computational experiments, and obtain inland port complex adaptive system rules. Finally, on the base of summarizing the computational experiment results, we set up the evaluation model system of inland port logistics performance, and provide necessary reference for the method by analyzing Kunming, Nanning and Xi'an in inland areas of China.

英文关键词： Inland Port;Regional Economy;Evolvement Mechanism;Complex Adaptive System;Simulation