“#22810;级分区”#22478;市交通出行诱导系统规划及诱导策略研究

项目名称： “#22810;级分区”#22478;市交通出行诱导系统规划及诱导策略研究

项目编号： No.50808050

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 交通运输

项目作者： 李文勇

作者单位： 桂林电子科技大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 城市交通出行诱导技术的应用已成为国内外城市解决交通拥堵的重要途径之一。项目研究提出了多级分区的交通出行诱导系统的结构设计思想。对城市交通出行诱导系统的动态交通信息平台、交通流信息采集系统、多级分区的交通可变信息标志诱导系统和三级"点"诱导系统提出了规划设计方案。提出了交通出行诱导路径的可靠度计算公式和方法，并基于交通出行诱导路径的行程时间的可靠度分析计算，提出并设计了交通诱导与控制系统下的准动态交通分配算法。通过对交通诱导与控制方案对出行者路径选择和准动态交通分配的影响分析，提出了改变路段阻抗和改变多路径分配策略的两种交通诱导与控制下的准动态交通分配策略。通过建立道路使用者确信度模糊模型，建立了用于描述诱导策略的离散动态Stackelberg博弈模型，并设计了基于遗传算法的Stackelberg动态博弈模型求解算法，从而实现了基于Stackelberg动态博弈模型的交通出行诱导方案的优化生成。基于路网准动态交通分配结果，提出交通出行诱导方案的分析评价方法，并开发了基于TSIS二次开发的交通出行诱导系统仿真分析技术。项目研究成果将对建设适合我国国情的交通出行诱导系统具有有益推动作用。

中文关键词： 智能交通系统；出行诱导系统； 准动态交通分配；博弈论；仿真分析

英文摘要： Travel guidance technology is a significant way to solve the congestion problem in domestic and foreign cities. A new traffic guidance strategy idea based on graduation district theory was proposed. Pointing to the dynamic traffic information platform, traffic flow information collecting system, traffic variable message signs guidance system of graduation district and the third class guidance spot system, there was a systemic plan and design. The feasible way to analyze the reliability of route cost presumed by fuzzy conclusion and forecasted cost in a trip was figured out. And a semi-dynamic traffic assignment algorithm under the guidance strategy and control system was proposed. Two kinds of semi-dynamic assignment strategy were proposed under the traffic guidance and control strategy by analyzing the affect of semi-dynamic assignment and the affect caused by the traffic guidance and control strategy to the travelers choices. The first, to change the road resistance assignment, the second, to change the assignment strategy in multi routes circumstance. Based on the established fuzzy model of road users, a differential Stackelberg game model which could describe the guidance strategies was constructed. Based on the Genetic Algorithm, the calculating algorithm was designed to solve the differential Stackelberg game model. In this way, the modified traffic travel guidance strategy based on the differential Stackelberg game model was put into real. Based on the result of the semi-dynamic assignment to the road network, it was proposed to asses and analyze the travel guidance strategy. The extend design module of RTE provided by the TSIS was used. an integrated simulation analysis technology of traffic guidance system based on the secondary exploitation of TSIS was obtained. This research will contribute a lot to constructe the traffic guidance system adaptive to the situation of our country.

英文关键词： ITS；Travel Guidance System；Semi-Dynamic Traffic Assignment；Game Theory； Simulation Analysis