国际集装箱运输链选择行为模型与应用研究

项目名称： 国际集装箱运输链选择行为模型与应用研究

项目编号： No.71271154

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 张戎

作者单位： 同济大学

项目金额： 53万元

中文摘要： 目前我国国际集装箱内陆段运输主要靠公路，铁路集疏集装箱港口的比例仅占1.2%左右，不利于低碳交通体系建设。推进铁水联运发展的重要任务是将国际集装箱内陆段运输中的公路运量转向铁路，其关键是要研究和掌握货主、货代、船公司的运输链选择行为。本课题针对货主、货代、船公司之间的差异性、随机偏好特征、运输链之间的相关性、运输链特性变量之间的非完全补偿性、决策者认知和习惯对选择行为的影响等问题，基于效用最大化理论，引入潜变量建立潜变量模型，引入阈值变量建立非线性效用函数，在此基础上构建国际集装箱运输链选择行为模型- - Mixed Logit模型，应用内嵌变序Halton和MLHS随机抽样结合的极大模拟似然法，借助LIMDEP软件对模型参数进行估计，比较确定预测精度和适用性最优的模型，揭示决策者的运输链选择行为机理。其成果可为出台铁水联运政策、规划铁水联运设施提供预评工具，为改善铁水联运组织提供决策参考。

中文关键词： 国际集装箱；内陆段运输链；离散选择模型；潜变量；异质性

英文摘要： Road dominates the inland transport of international container in China, and railway accounts container port collection and distribution traffic for only about 1.2%. This is adverse to the low-carbon transport system construction. The vital task of promoting railway-water combined transport is to transfer road international container traffic to railway, and this needs to study and master the International Container Transport Chain Choice Behavior of shippers, forwarders and shipping lines （referred to decision makers）. To deal with the problems such as difference between these decision makers, the influence of random preference, perception and habit to their choice behavior, the correlation of different transport chain, and the non-fully compensation of transport chain attributes, this study, based the theory of utility maximization, introduces latent variable to develop a latent variable model, and cutoff variable to develop a non-linear utility function. Then the Mixed Logit model will be established, and combing Shuffled Halton and Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling Method, the parameters will be estimated by use of LIMDEP software. By comparing the precision and applicability of above models, the optimal models will be picked out to reveal the mechanism of decision maker's international container transport ch

英文关键词： International Containter；Hinterland Leg Transportation Chain；Discrete Choice Model；Latent Variable；Heterogeneity