基于多粒度粗糙集的风险投资项目选择决策分析研究

项目名称： 基于多粒度粗糙集的风险投资项目选择决策分析研究

项目编号： No.71301090

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 宋鹏

作者单位： 山西大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 有效的风险投资项目选择决策对于国家高新技术产业发展、综合国力提升具有极其重要的意义。然而，在现实决策中，风险投资项目选择仍然面临关键指标选取难以形成统一的指标体系，项目评价需要进行参数估计、分布假设检验等现实困难。面对上述决策困难，本课题面向风险投资项目选择决策分析问题，着眼于从数据本身挖掘决策信息，从多维视角进行综合决策判断，基于多粒度粗糙集理论，系统开展理论分析、数据建模与实证研究。具体内容：(1)基于多粒度粗糙集的风险投资项目选择决策分析框架；(2)排序决策中关键指标集选取的多粒度方法；(3)基于多粒度融合的全序化排序决策建模；(4)多阶段项目筛选的概率决策规则获取与动态更新。本课题成果将为风险投资项目选择提供可靠的决策支持，为多粒度粗糙集问题求解与决策分析提供新的研究路径；对于多粒度粗糙集理论与方法体系的完善具有重要的科学意义，在多属性分级、排序决策中具有广泛的应用前景。

中文关键词： 粗糙集；多粒度；信息熵；投资决策；数据挖掘

英文摘要： Effective decision for venture capital screening has extremely important significance for the development of national high-tech industries and enhancement of the comprehensive national power. However, in real decision-making, venture capital screening still faces some real difficulties, such as to form a unified index system for key index selection, to evaluate project from parameter estimation and distribution hypothesis testing. For the difficulties above, the subject oriented by venture capital screening decision focuses on mining decision-making information from the data itself and integrated decision judgement from a multidimensional perspective. And based on the theory of multigranulation rough sets, the subject systematically carries out theory analysis, data modeling and empirical research. The specific contents are as follow: (1) the decision analysis framework of venture capital screening based on multigranulation rough sets; (2) the multigranulation method of extraction of critical evaluation index sets in ranking decision;(3) completely ordered ranking decision based on multigranulation fusion;(4) the access and dynamic update of probability decision rules for multi-stage project screening. The results of this subject will provide reliable decision support for venture capital screening, and a new res

英文关键词： Rough sets；Multigranulation；Information entropy；Investment decision；Data mining