Likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models has recently attracted a surge of interest, both in the machine learning and statistics communities. The primary focus of these research fields has been to approximate the posterior distribution of model parameters, either by various types of Monte Carlo sampling algorithms or deep neural network -based surrogate models. Frequentist inference for simulator-based models has been given much less attention to date, despite that it would be particularly amenable to applications with big data where implicit asymptotic approximation of the likelihood is expected to be accurate and can leverage computationally efficient strategies. Here we derive a set of theoretical results to enable estimation, hypothesis testing and construction of confidence intervals for model parameters using asymptotic properties of the Jensen--Shannon divergence. Such asymptotic approximation offers a rapid alternative to more computation-intensive approaches and can be attractive for diverse applications of simulator-based models. 61
翻译:最近,机器学习界和统计界都对模拟以模拟为基础的统计模型的无概率推论产生了极大的兴趣,这些研究领域的主要重点是,通过各种类型的蒙特卡洛取样算法或深神经网络替代模型,来估计模型参数的后方分布。模拟模型的常态推论迄今受到的关注要少得多,尽管它特别容易应用大数据的应用程序,其中对可能性的隐含性近似值可望准确,并能利用计算效率高的战略。在这里,我们得出一套理论结果,以便利用詹森-尚诺差异的亚性特征来估计、假设测试和构建模型参数的信任间隔。例如,模拟近似提供了一种快速的替代计算密集型方法,并且对模拟模型的多种应用具有吸引力。