Variational Gaussian Process Diffusion Processes

Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with latent processes endowed with a non-linear diffusion process prior are intractable problems. We build upon work within variational inference approximating the posterior process as a linear diffusion process, point out pathologies in the approach, and propose an alternative parameterization of the Gaussian variational process using a continuous exponential family description. This allows us to trade a slow inference algorithm with fixed-point iterations for a fast algorithm for convex optimization akin to natural gradient descent, which also provides a better objective for the learning of model parameters.