Kernel Ridge Regression Inference

We provide uniform confidence bands for kernel ridge regression (KRR), with finite sample guarantees. KRR is ubiquitous, yet--to our knowledge--this paper supplies the first exact, uniform confidence bands for KRR in the non-parametric regime where the regularization parameter $\lambda$ converges to 0, for general data distributions. Our proposed uniform confidence band is based on a new, symmetrized multiplier bootstrap procedure with a closed form solution, which allows for valid uncertainty quantification without assumptions on the bias. To justify the procedure, we derive non-asymptotic, uniform Gaussian and bootstrap couplings for partial sums in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with bounded kernel. Our results imply strong approximation for empirical processes indexed by the RKHS unit ball, with sharp, logarithmic dependence on the covering number.