HoTPP Benchmark: Are We Good at the Long Horizon Events Forecasting?

In sequential event prediction, which finds applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare, a crucial task is forecasting multiple future events within a specified time horizon. Traditionally, this has been addressed through autoregressive generation using next-event prediction models, such as Marked Temporal Point Processes. However, autoregressive methods use their own output for future predictions, potentially reducing quality as the prediction horizon extends. In this paper, we challenge traditional approaches by introducing a novel benchmark, HoTPP, specifically designed to evaluate a model's ability to predict event sequences over a horizon. This benchmark features a new metric inspired by object detection in computer vision, addressing the limitations of existing metrics in assessing models with imprecise time-step predictions. Our evaluations on established datasets employing various models demonstrate that high accuracy in next-event prediction does not necessarily translate to superior horizon prediction, and vice versa. HoTPP aims to serve as a valuable tool for developing more robust event sequence prediction methods, ultimately paving the way for further advancements in the field.