This paper is about two things: (i) Charles Sanders Peirce (1837-1914) -- an iconoclastic philosopher and polymath who is among the greatest of American minds. (ii) Abductive inference -- a term coined by C. S. Peirce, which he defined as "the process of forming explanatory hypotheses. It is the only logical operation which introduces any new idea." Abductive inference and quantitative economics: Abductive inference plays a fundamental role in empirical scientific research as a tool for discovery and data analysis. Heckman and Singer (2017) strongly advocated "Economists should abduct." Arnold Zellner (2007) stressed that "much greater emphasis on reductive [abductive] inference in teaching econometrics, statistics, and economics would be desirable." But currently, there are no established theory or practical tools that can allow an empirical analyst to abduct. This paper attempts to fill this gap by introducing new principles and concrete procedures to the Economics and Statistics community. I termed the proposed approach as Abductive Inference Machine (AIM). The historical Peirce's experiment: In 1872, Peirce conducted a series of experiments to determine the distribution of response times to an auditory stimulus, which is widely regarded as one of the most significant statistical investigations in the history of nineteenth-century American mathematical research (Stigler, 1978). On the 150th anniversary of this historical experiment, we look back at the Peircean-style abductive inference through a modern statistical lens. Using Peirce's data, it is shown how empirical analysts can abduct in a systematic and automated manner using AIM.
翻译:本文涉及两件事:(一) 查尔斯·桑德斯·皮尔斯(1837-1914年) -- -- 一个具有象征意义的哲学哲学家和多元体,是美国最伟大的头脑之一。 (二) 直觉推论 -- -- C. S. 皮尔斯(C. S. Peirce)发明的术语,他将其定义为“形成解释性假设的过程。这是引入任何新想法的唯一逻辑操作。” 直觉推断和定量经济学:直觉推断在作为发现和数据分析工具的实验科学研究中发挥了根本作用。 Heckman和Singer(2017年)强烈主张“天文学家应当绑架。”Arnold Zellner(2007年)强调“在教授生态计量、统计和经济学时,更加强调再现的[感动]推论。 ”但目前,没有既定的理论或实用工具可以让经验分析员进行绑架。这份文件试图通过向经济学和统计界引入新的原则和具体程序来填补这一空白。我将拟议的方法称为“直觉推断机器 ” (AIM)。Artal Rodeal Arial Arnial ad) lial Aciencealalalalalalalalal devidudeal deviduce(Arview) (AI)