We formulate and solve a quickest detection problem with false negatives. A standard Brownian motion acquires a drift at an independent exponential random time which is not directly observable. Based on the observation in continuous time of the sample path of the process, an optimiser must detect the drift as quickly as possible after it has appeared. The optimiser can inspect the system multiple times upon payment of a fixed cost per inspection. If a test is performed on the system before the drift has appeared then, naturally, the test will return a negative outcome. However, if a test is performed after the drift has appeared, then the test may fail to detect it and return a false negative with probability $\epsilon\in(0,1)$. The optimisation ends when the drift is eventually detected. The problem is formulated mathematically as an optimal multiple stopping problem and it is shown to be equivalent to a recursive optimal stopping problem. Exploiting such connection and free boundary methods we find explicit formulae for the expected cost and the optimal strategy. We also show that when $\epsilon = 0$ our expected cost coincides with the one in Shiryaev's classical optimal detection problem.
翻译:我们用假底片制定并解决最快速的检测问题。 标准的布朗运动在无法直接观察的独立指数随机时间获得漂移。 根据连续时间对过程的样本路径的观察, 优化器必须尽快检测漂移情况。 优化器在每次检查支付固定成本后可以对系统进行多次检查。 如果在漂移出现之前对系统进行测试, 自然, 测试将返回一个负结果 。 但是, 如果在漂移出现后进行测试, 测试可能无法检测它, 并返回一个假的负值 $\ epsilon\ in( 0. 1 $ ) 。 当最终检测到漂移时, 优化的优化度结束。 问题在数学上被表述为最佳的多重阻停问题, 并显示它相当于一个循环的最佳停止问题 。 使用这种连接和自由边界方法, 我们就会找到一个明确的公式来计算预期的成本和最佳策略 。 我们还显示, 当 $\ epslon = 0$ 我们的预期成本与Shiyaev 的典型检测问题相吻合时, 。