Maddox, et al. [9, 10] establish Bayesian methods for estimating home-team in-game win probability for college and NBA basketball. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach for estimating in-game home-team win probability for Division-I FBS college (American) football that uses expected number of remaining possessions and expected score as two predictors. Models for estimating these are presented and compared. These, along with other predictors are introduced into two Bayesian approaches for the final estimate of in-game home-team win probability. To illustrate utility, methods are applied to the 2021 Big XII Conference Football Championship game between Baylor and Oklahoma State.
翻译：Maddox, et al. [9, 10] 建立巴伊西亚方法,用以估算大学和NBA篮球赛中母队赢赢概率,本文介绍了巴伊西亚方法,用于估算美分局FBS大学(美国)足球赛中母队赢赢赢概率,该方法将剩余财产的预期数量和预期得分作为两个预测数,并介绍和比较估算这些财产和分数的模型。这些模型和其他预测数据一起被引入巴伊西亚方法,用于估算在巴伊西亚的母队赢赢概率的最后估计。为了说明实用性,将方法应用于2021年Baylor和俄克拉荷马州之间的大十二足球锦标赛比赛。
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