Accurate trajectory prediction of vehicles is essential for reliable autonomous driving. To maintain consistent performance as a vehicle driving around different cities, it is crucial to adapt to changing traffic circumstances and achieve lifelong trajectory prediction model. To realize it, catastrophic forgetting is a main problem to be addressed. In this paper, a divergence measurement method based on conditional Kullback-Leibler divergence is proposed first to evaluate spatiotemporal dependency difference among varied driving circumstances. Then based on generative replay, a novel lifelong vehicle trajectory prediction framework is developed. The framework consists of a conditional generation model and a vehicle trajectory prediction model. The conditional generation model is a generative adversarial network conditioned on position configuration of vehicles. After learning and merging trajectory distribution of vehicles across different cities, the generation model replays trajectories with prior samplings as inputs, which alleviates catastrophic forgetting. The vehicle trajectory prediction model is trained by the replayed trajectories and achieves consistent prediction performance on visited cities. A lifelong experiment setup is established on four open datasets including five tasks. Spatiotemporal dependency divergence is calculated for different tasks. Even though these divergence, the proposed framework exhibits lifelong learning ability and achieves consistent performance on all tasks.
翻译:对车辆进行准确的轨迹预测对于可靠自主驾驶至关重要。为了保持车辆在城市周围驾驶的一贯性,至关重要的是要适应不断变化的交通环境,实现终生轨迹预测模型。为了实现这一点,灾难性的遗忘是一个主要问题。在本文件中,首先提出基于有条件的库列背-利博尔差异的差别计量方法,以评价不同驾驶环境在时间上依赖性的差异。然后根据基因回放,开发了一个全新的终身车辆轨迹预测框架。框架包括一个有条件的生成模型和一个车辆轨迹预测模型。有条件的生成模型是一个以车辆位置配置为条件的基因式对立网络。在学习和合并不同城市的车辆轨迹分布后,生成模型以先前的抽样作为减少灾难性遗忘的轨迹。车辆轨迹预测模型由重放轨迹的轨迹分析培训,并在所访问的城市实现一致的预测业绩。在四个开放数据集上建立了终身实验,包括五项任务。对视不同任务进行分辨的视依赖性差异计算。即使这些差异、拟议的终身学习框架具有持续性能。